Chinese economy

The Chinese economic transformation stands at crossroads. To manage the next steps of the transformation process China needs to define a new strategy towards innovation driven growth. In contrast to the export- and investment driven growth in the past, private consumption will play a more dominant role. Faster urbanization can promote the transformation, as cities provide a more favourable climate to consume. In addition, it improves the conditions for expansion of the services sector.

Institutional conditions for the transformation are not optimal. Impediments such as the still low level of social security put a downward pressure on private consumption. Innovation activities of private firms are restricted due to limited access to bank credit. Entrepreneurs have to lend at the shadow banking system at high interest rates. The need for reforms is striking in different areas. Otherwise, China could run an increasing risk to get stuck in a middle income trap.




Topics

Consumer markets

Financial market reform

Financing conditions for SMEs

Chinese FDI in Europe




Research fellowship

Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing

Renmin University of China, Beijing

Chinese Economists Society




Sessions at AEA conferences

The integration of China into the world economy, Chicago 2012

The sustainability of the Chinese growth model, Philadelphia 2014

Institutional conditions for sustainable growth, Boston 2015




Some references

Is there a Chinese real estate bubble? Regional evidence and implications
Urban Policy and Research 31, 2013, 27-39 (with Zhang)

The Chinese impact on output growth and inflation in industrial countries
Economic Modelling 38, 2014, 184-189 (with Zhang)


On the relevance of exports for regional output growth in China
Applied Economics 46, 2014, 4302-4308 (with Zhang)


Understanding Chinese consumption. The impact of Hukou
Development and Change 46, 2015, 1331-1345 (with Wang, Zhang)

Determinants of Chinese direct investments in the European Union
DIW Discussion Paper 1480 (with Schueler-Zhou, Schueller)

Determining minimum wages in China: Do economic factors dominate?
IZA Discussion Paper 9716 (with Kosfeld, Zhang)




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